How a Revolutionary Guard Inner Circle Runs Iran

By VirentaNews Staff — May 21, 2026

Iran’s decision-making is effectively controlled by a closed network of hard-line military and intelligence figures centered on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). This fraternity, rooted in the 1979 revolution’s ideological guard, has systematically eroded civilian governance, embedding itself in every lever of power—from the presidency to state-owned enterprises. With Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s health declining and regional tensions escalating, the IRGC’s influence has become both more overt and more consequential, shaping Iran’s confrontational posture abroad and its repressive apparatus at home.

The IRGC’s Institutional Grip on Power

Quantitative assessments of Iran’s power structure reveal the IRGC’s dominance across economic, political, and military domains. According to a 2023 report by the U.S. Treasury Department, the IRGC controls an estimated $100 billion in assets through affiliated conglomerates like Khatam al-Anbiya, which dominate construction, energy, and telecommunications. The Guards also oversee the Basij militia, numbering over 100,000 active members and up to 1 million reservists, enabling mass surveillance and crackdowns on civil unrest. In the 2024 parliamentary elections, over 60% of winning candidates had direct ties to the IRGC or its intelligence wing, a sharp rise from 35% in 2016. These figures, compiled by the International Crisis Group, illustrate a systemic takeover: the IRGC is no longer a shadow power but the central governing institution. Its Quds Force, responsible for extraterritorial operations, has directed proxy networks across Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen—expenditures that have surged by 300% since 2018, according to Reuters investigations.

Key Players in Iran’s Military-Electoral Complex

The inner circle includes figures like Major General Hossein Salami, Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC, who has publicly declared that “the revolution must always remain armed and vigilant.” Salami, appointed in 2019 after the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, has overseen the militarization of domestic politics, including the violent suppression of the 2022–2023 protests following Mahsa Amini’s death. Another pivotal figure is Esmail Qaani, Soleimani’s successor as Quds Force commander, who manages Iran’s alliances with Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Shia militias in Iraq. On the political front, President Ebrahim Raisi—before his 2024 death in a helicopter crash—was a protégé of Khamenei and closely aligned with the IRGC judiciary, which imprisoned thousands of dissidents. His successor, Mohammad Mokhber, served as head of the Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order (EIKO), a vast parastatal foundation that channels IRGC-linked wealth. Meanwhile, Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s son, leads the ultra-conservative Setad, further entrenching familial and military control.

Trade-Offs of Military Dominance

The IRGC’s supremacy brings both resilience and fragility to Iran’s regime. On one hand, it ensures ideological cohesion and rapid mobilization against internal and external threats, enabling sustained support for allies like Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Hamas in Gaza. This cohesion has preserved regime survival amid U.S. sanctions that have cut oil exports by 80% since 2018. On the other hand, the militarization of governance stifles innovation, deters foreign investment, and deepens public disillusionment. Iran’s youth unemployment exceeds 25%, and brain drain has accelerated, with over 1.5 million professionals emigrating since 2010, per BBC analysis. Economically, the IRGC’s monopolistic practices distort markets, while its involvement in smuggling and sanctions evasion invites further international isolation. Moreover, the suppression of political pluralism risks provoking larger uprisings, as seen in the nationwide protests of 2022, which the regime quelled at the cost of over 500 civilian lives.

Why the Fraternity’s Power Is Peaking Now

The current consolidation stems from three converging factors: Supreme Leader succession anxieties, regional instability, and the erosion of reformist alternatives. With Ayatollah Khamenei now 85 and in poor health, the IRGC is positioning itself as the ultimate arbiter of post-Khamenei Iran, resisting any transition that might weaken its authority. Simultaneously, heightened tensions with Israel and the United States—particularly after the October 2023 Gaza war and Iran’s April 2024 missile strikes—have justified a “besieged fortress” narrative, reinforcing the Guards’ claim to national stewardship. Finally, the systematic disqualification of reformist candidates in elections and the imprisonment of opposition leaders like Mir-Hossein Mousavi have eliminated credible civilian alternatives, leaving the IRGC as the only functional power center.

Where We Go From Here

In the next 12 months, Iran could face one of three trajectories. First, a managed succession could install a Khamenei-approved figure—possibly Mojtaba Khamenei or a senior cleric like Ayatollah Golpayegani—under IRGC oversight, maintaining continuity. Second, internal fractures within the Guards’ leadership over economic policy or foreign adventurism could spark a power struggle, especially if regional operations backfire. Third, renewed public unrest, fueled by economic hardship and digital mobilization, might force a partial opening, though the IRGC’s repressive capacity makes significant liberalization unlikely. Each scenario hinges on the Guards’ ability to balance coercion with co-optation.

Bottom line — Iran’s future will be determined not by elections or diplomacy, but by the calculations of a military fraternity that sees itself as the revolution’s immortal guardian.

Source: The New York Times