Usyk Favored in 70% of Expert Fight Picks

By VirentaNews Staff — May 24, 2026

Ukrainian boxing champion Oleksandr Usyk enters the ring against Dutch kickboxing legend Rico Verhoeven in a historic crossover bout set for May 23 in Giza, Egypt — a clash that blurs the boundaries between disciplines, weight classes, and combat sports traditions. While Usyk holds a proven record at the elite level of professional boxing, including unified heavyweight and former cruiserweight titles, Verhoeven brings an undefeated kickboxing résumé and elite striking precision from over a decade atop the GLORY ranks. Despite the stylistic disparity and lack of formal boxing credentials for Verhoeven, oddsmakers and analysts are weighing the implications of technique, ringcraft, and adaptability in a contest that could redefine cross-discipline credibility in combat sports.

Fight Odds and Betting Market Analysis

As of May 21, 2024, betting markets at major sportsbooks including Bet365 and DraftKings list Oleksandr Usyk as a -350 favorite, implying a 78% implied probability of victory, while Rico Verhoeven sits at +275 underdog odds. According to SportsLine’s Josh Nagel, who has posted a 249-188-8 record on combat sports picks over the past three years, the line reflects more than just reputational weight — it accounts for technical adaptability and fight IQ. Usyk’s 21-0 professional boxing record includes 14 knockouts and victories over Anthony Joshua (twice), Derek Chisora, and Daniel Dubois. In contrast, Verhoeven’s GLORY kickboxing record stands at 78-10 with 26 knockouts, though he has never competed under Queensberry or WBC boxing rules. Nagel notes that while Verhoeven’s lateral movement and low-kick pressure could disrupt rhythm, Usyk’s footwork, counterpunching, and ring generalship present a steep challenge for any striker unfamiliar with boxing’s timing and distance control.

Key Fighters and Their Combat Backgrounds

Oleksandr Usyk, 37, transitioned seamlessly from a decorated amateur career — including Olympic gold in 2012 — to professional dominance, unifying the cruiserweight division before moving up to heavyweight. His southpaw stance, fluid combinations, and exceptional stamina have drawn comparisons to legends like Floyd Mayweather and Bernard Hopkins. Meanwhile, Rico Verhoeven, 35, has ruled the GLORY heavyweight division since 2016, earning the nickname “King of the Ring” for his technical superiority and defensive discipline. Trained by renowned coach Tom Spilling, Verhoeven blends Muay Thai fundamentals with elite conditioning and fight intelligence. Though he sparred with boxing champions like Lennox Lewis and Anthony Joshua in exhibition settings, this bout marks his official professional boxing debut. The matchup, sanctioned under hybrid rules approved by the International Boxing Association (IBA), allows 10-ounce gloves, 12 three-minute rounds, and disallows kicks and knees — a significant restriction for Verhoeven’s core arsenal.

Strategic Trade-Offs and Tactical Risks

The central trade-off in this contest lies in striking range versus ringcraft. Verhoeven excels at controlling distance with teeps, jabs, and straight kicks, but under boxing rules, his primary tools are halved. Without low kicks or clinch entries, his ability to disrupt Usyk’s balance and footwork diminishes significantly. Conversely, Usyk risks being caught by Verhoeven’s powerful straight right and overhand left — strikes honed against larger, slower kickboxers. Furthermore, Verhoeven’s experience in 12-round fights may offer a slight endurance edge, though Usyk has gone the distance against elite boxers like Joshua in grueling 12-round wars. Analysts at BBC Sport highlight that while knockout power favors Verhoeven in a single clean shot, volume, accuracy, and head movement give Usyk a systemic advantage. The absence of grappling or takedowns also neutralizes any potential wrestling counters, placing full emphasis on stand-up striking — Usyk’s domain.

Why This Fight Happens Now

The bout arrives amid rising demand for cross-promotional combat events, fueled by the success of exhibitions like Jake Paul vs. Tyron Woodley and the emergence of platforms like DAZN and Riyadh Season promoting high-profile spectacles. The International Boxing Association, seeking to expand boxing’s global appeal, approved the matchup as part of its “Pyramid of Champions” series hosted at the foot of the Great Pyramid of Giza — a symbolic nod to ancient combat traditions. With both fighters in the latter stages of their careers, the timing offers Usyk a chance to cement legacy beyond traditional boxing circles, while Verhoeven seeks legitimacy in a discipline that has long dismissed kickboxers’ transition potential. The event also coincides with increased investment in Egyptian sports infrastructure, positioning North Africa as a new hub for global fight nights.

Where We Go From Here

Over the next six to twelve months, three scenarios could unfold. First, a dominant Usyk victory could prompt calls for a Joshua rematch or a unification bout with Tyson Fury, assuming Fury recovers from his health issues. Second, a competitive Verhoeven performance — even in defeat — might open doors for other kickboxers to test boxing waters under hybrid rules, possibly leading to a new exhibition circuit. Third, a Verhoeven upset, however unlikely, would send shockwaves through combat sports, potentially accelerating rule innovations and sanctioning body collaborations between boxing and kickboxing. The IBA may also push for more such events in emerging markets, using star power to boost viewership and sponsorship.

Bottom line — while Rico Verhoeven brings elite striking credentials, Oleksandr Usyk’s superior ringcraft, technical precision, and experience under boxing rules make him the overwhelming favorite to prevail in this historic crossover showdown.

Source: CBS Sports