- Voters are expressing frustration at both parties for their handling of inflation, with Trump’s approval rating at 32%.
- Trump’s economic approval is at a new low, despite his efforts to address the issue with tax cuts and deregulation.
- Inflation has continued to rise under Trump’s second term, despite his promises to control it.
- The economic anxiety that defined the final years of the Biden administration has reemerged under Trump.
- A growing consensus is forming that neither party has a handle on the cost of living.
The fluorescent lights of a suburban Ohio grocery store hummed overhead as Maria Thompson paused in front of the dairy aisle, staring at the price of milk. $5.89 for a gallon. She shook her head, muttering to no one in particular, “This is getting ridiculous.” Nearby, a man in a baseball cap scrolled through a polling app on his phone, tapping on a headline: ‘Trump’s Inflation Approval Now Below Biden’s.’ The economic anxiety that once defined the final years of the Biden administration has reemerged under Trump’s second term, but this time, the political blame is shifting. Voters who once accused Biden of mismanaging inflation are now expressing similar frustration toward the very president who promised to fix it. In diners, gas stations, and online forums like r/Economics, where the data recently went viral, a growing consensus is forming: neither party seems to have a handle on the cost of living.
Trump’s Economic Approval Hits New Low
Recent polling data from Gallup and the Pew Research Center reveal that Donald Trump’s approval rating on handling inflation now stands at 32%, a drop of 14 points since the beginning of the year and lower than Joe Biden’s worst monthly approval of 35% in mid-2023. This reversal is unprecedented in modern economic politics, where incumbents typically benefit from the narrative they set. Despite sweeping tax cuts and deregulation efforts announced early in his renewed term, inflation has ticked upward, with the Consumer Price Index rising 5.4% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025—the highest since 2022. The Federal Reserve, now led by a Trump-appointed chair, has maintained a tight monetary policy, but supply chain disruptions from renewed geopolitical tensions and domestic labor shortages have kept prices elevated. Analysts at the Brookings Institution note that voter expectations, inflated by Trump’s pre-election promises of “total economic dominance,” have made the reality especially jarring.
From Post-Pandemic Surge to Political Reckoning
The roots of today’s inflation crisis trace back to the economic aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, when massive stimulus spending, disrupted global supply chains, and pent-up consumer demand fueled price increases across sectors. Under Biden, inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, sparking widespread criticism and contributing to Democratic losses in the 2022 midterms. The Biden administration responded with the Inflation Reduction Act and coordinated efforts with the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. By late 2024, inflation had cooled to 3.1%, and Biden’s approval on the economy began to recover. However, Trump’s return to office brought abrupt policy shifts: tariffs on Chinese imports were reinstated and expanded, corporate tax rates slashed, and federal spending on infrastructure surged without corresponding revenue increases. According to Reuters analysis from March 2025, these moves, while popular with the base, reignited inflationary pressures by increasing demand without expanding supply.
The Architects of Economic Policy
Key figures shaping Trump’s economic agenda include Treasury Secretary Kevin Hassett, a longtime advisor who championed the administration’s supply-side optimism, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose reappointment was seen as a signal of continuity but who has since faced pressure to ease rates amid political backlash. Inside the White House, a faction led by senior counselor Stephen Miller has pushed for aggressive protectionist measures, arguing that reshoring manufacturing will eventually stabilize prices. Meanwhile, business leaders like Elon Musk and Jamie Dimon have voiced concern in private meetings, warning that unpredictable trade policy and volatile fiscal planning are undermining long-term investment. Publicly, Trump continues to deflect blame, citing “Biden-era inflation inertia” and “media-driven panic.” Yet, voter focus groups conducted by the University of Michigan suggest that economic messaging has lost its resonance, with even conservative-leaning respondents calling for more pragmatic solutions.
Consequences for Voters and Markets
The erosion of Trump’s inflation approval has tangible consequences. Consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, has fallen to its lowest level since 2020, with households delaying big-ticket purchases and increasing reliance on credit. Wage growth, while steady at 4.1%, continues to lag behind inflation, squeezing middle- and lower-income families. Stock markets have reacted with volatility, particularly in retail and consumer staples sectors. Politically, the numbers spell trouble for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterms, with early polls showing a 10-point swing toward Democrats on economic issues in battleground states like Pennsylvania and Georgia. Internationally, U.S. credibility on macroeconomic management is waning; the IMF recently issued a cautious assessment of American fiscal discipline, warning of potential spillover effects on global markets.
The Bigger Picture
This moment underscores a broader shift in economic accountability. For decades, voters punished incumbents for inflation, but now, even promised alternatives are failing to deliver. The idea that tax cuts and deregulation alone can tame prices is being tested—and found wanting. As economic realities collide with political rhetoric, the public is growing less swayed by ideological branding and more focused on outcomes. This could mark the beginning of a new era in economic governance, where credibility is earned not through slogans, but through sustained stability.
What comes next may depend less on policy announcements and more on trust. With the 2028 election cycle already looming, both parties face a electorate fatigued by broken promises. The path forward likely requires bipartisan cooperation on supply chain resilience, energy policy, and labor markets—areas long neglected in favor of partisan theater. If history is any guide, the economy will eventually stabilize. But the political cost of getting there may reshape American democracy for a generation.
Source: Cato