AI Warns of Job Losses Except for Trades

By VirentaNews Staff — May 12, 2026

Executive summary — main thesis in 3 sentences: The rise of artificial intelligence is transforming the job market, with many professions at risk of being automated. However, skilled tradesmen such as plumbers, electricians, and HVAC technicians are watching from the sidelines as AI replaces jobs in other sectors. As AI continues to advance, the demand for skilled tradesmen is likely to increase, making them a rare exception in an otherwise rapidly changing employment landscape.

Evidence of AI’s Impact on Jobs

Hard data, numbers, primary sources: According to a report by the McKinsey Global Institute, up to 800 million jobs could be lost worldwide due to automation by 2030. Furthermore, a study by the Brookings Institution found that nearly 40% of US jobs are at high risk of being automated. In contrast, skilled trades such as plumbing and electrical work require a high degree of manual dexterity and problem-solving skills, making them less susceptible to automation.

Key Players in the Skilled Trades

Key actors, their roles, recent moves: Skilled tradesmen are the primary beneficiaries of the trend, as they possess the skills and expertise required to perform complex tasks that are difficult to automate. Companies like HomeAdvisor and Angie’s List are also playing a crucial role in connecting homeowners with skilled tradesmen, facilitating the growth of the industry. Additionally, trade organizations such as the National Electrical Contractors Association are working to promote the interests of skilled tradesmen and provide training and certification programs to ensure they remain competitive in the job market.

Trade-Offs of Automation

Costs, benefits, risks, opportunities: While automation brings many benefits, including increased efficiency and productivity, it also poses significant risks to workers who are displaced by machines. However, for skilled tradesmen, the benefits of automation are clear: they are able to focus on high-value tasks that require human expertise, while automation handles more routine and repetitive tasks. Moreover, the increased demand for skilled tradesmen is likely to drive up wages and improve working conditions, making these professions more attractive to young people considering a career in the trades.

Timing of the Trend

Why now, what changed: The trend towards automation has been building for several years, but recent advances in AI and machine learning have accelerated the process. The COVID-19 pandemic has also played a role, as companies have been forced to adapt to new circumstances and find ways to maintain productivity while minimizing human contact. As a result, the demand for skilled tradesmen has increased, and is likely to continue to grow in the coming years.

Where We Go From Here

Three scenarios for the next 6-12 months: Over the next year, we can expect to see continued growth in the demand for skilled tradesmen, as companies invest in automation and AI technologies. A second scenario is that governments and educational institutions will begin to invest in programs to retrain workers who have been displaced by automation, leading to an increase in the number of skilled tradesmen available to meet the growing demand. A third scenario is that the trend towards automation will slow, as companies begin to realize the limitations and risks of relying too heavily on machines, leading to a renewed focus on human skills and expertise.

Bottom line — single sentence verdict: In conclusion, the rise of AI is likely to have a positive impact on skilled tradesmen, who will continue to be in high demand as companies invest in automation and AI technologies, making them a rare exception in an otherwise rapidly changing employment landscape.

Source: V