3 Major Carriers Report 70% Drop in Red Sea Transits

By VirentaNews Staff — April 27, 2026

More than six months after Houthi forces in Yemen first began attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea, global shipping has yet to return to normal. Despite a recent pledge by the Iran-backed rebels to halt targeting of ships, the world’s three largest container carriers—A.P. Moller-Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), and CMA CGM—have announced they will continue rerouting vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope. This detour adds up to 10 to 14 days to transit times and inflates fuel and operational costs, contributing to an estimated $2.5 billion in additional expenses for the shipping industry since November 2023, according to data from maritime analytics firm Sea-Intelligence. The sustained disruption underscores how fragile maritime security remains, even in the face of diplomatic overtures, and highlights the deep skepticism among logistics leaders about lasting stability in one of the world’s most critical trade corridors.

Why a Ceasefire Isn’t Enough for Shippers

The Red Sea, through the Suez Canal, handles about 12% of global trade, making it a linchpin of international supply chains. When Houthi militants began launching drones and missiles at commercial vessels in late 2023—claiming solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza—shipping firms quickly suspended transits. Although the group declared a temporary halt to attacks in early April 2024, the pause has not restored confidence. Executives at Maersk and CMA CGM have emphasized that isolated declarations do not equate to reliable security, especially amid ongoing conflict in Gaza and retaliatory strikes by the U.S. and U.K. in Yemen. As one industry analyst told Reuters, “Shipping companies are not betting on goodwill—they’re betting on risk assessments.” Without verifiable, long-term guarantees and regional de-escalation, carriers are keeping their distance.

Carriers Stick to Detours Amid Unclear Threat Levels

Maersk, the Danish shipping giant, made headlines in December 2023 when it became the first major operator to suspend Red Sea operations after a missile strike on one of its vessels. Since then, MSC and France’s CMA CGM followed suit, diverting hundreds of voyages around the Cape of Good Hope. Despite the Houthi announcement, all three have confirmed they will not resume Red Sea transits in the near term. CMA CGM cited “persistent threats” in the region, while Maersk stated it would only consider returning when “the security situation is predictable and sustainable.” Even vessel tracking data shows fewer than 10% of container ships are currently using the Suez route—down from over 60% before the crisis. The U.S.-led naval coalition Operation Prosperity Guardian has offered escorts, but private firms remain wary of relying on military protection for routine commercial operations.

Escalating Costs and Supply Chain Strain

The economic impact of prolonged rerouting is substantial. Each Cape detour increases fuel consumption by approximately 200 to 300 tons per vessel and adds $1 million to $1.5 million in costs per round-trip, according to estimates from the International Chamber of Shipping. These expenses are being passed on through higher freight rates and emergency fuel surcharges. Retailers importing goods from Asia to Europe are facing delays and inflated prices, which could feed into broader inflationary pressures. Port congestion in Europe has worsened as shipments arrive unpredictably, while empty container imbalances are re-emerging. “This isn’t just a maritime issue—it’s a global supply chain stress test,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of Sea-Intelligence. Without a definitive end to hostilities or credible enforcement mechanisms in the region, the industry is bracing for a prolonged period of volatility.

Geopolitical Spillover Threatens Trade Resilience

The Red Sea crisis exemplifies how regional conflicts can rapidly disrupt global commerce. The Houthis’ attacks were framed as a response to Israeli operations in Gaza, blurring the lines between localized warfare and international trade security. This linkage has made resolution more complex, as de-escalation now depends not just on Yemen, but on the trajectory of the Israel-Hamas war and broader U.S. and Iranian influence in the Middle East. Maritime experts warn that if similar tactics are adopted by other non-state actors in strategic waterways—from the Strait of Hormuz to the South China Sea—the precedent could erode the inviolability of commercial shipping. The current standoff reveals a troubling reality: in an era of hybrid warfare, even a temporary truce may not be sufficient to restore business confidence.

Expert Perspectives

Analysts are divided on the long-term outlook. Some, like Dr. Helena Malikova of Chatham House, argue that “without a comprehensive peace process in the region, shipping lanes will remain vulnerable to political brinkmanship.” Others, such as maritime security consultant Nick Halliwell, believe that increased naval presence and improved vessel hardening—like drone detection systems—could eventually make transits viable even in high-risk zones. Still, most agree that private shipping firms, accountable to shareholders and insurers, will prioritize caution over optimism until the threat is demonstrably neutralized.

Looking ahead, the return to normal Red Sea operations hinges less on statements and more on verifiable, sustained security. Insurers are watching claims data, operators are monitoring geopolitical indicators, and governments are assessing diplomatic channels. The key question isn’t whether the Houthis will keep their word—it’s whether the broader Middle East can stabilize enough for global trade to do the same.

Source: Wsj